Прогнозирование рынка Forex market forecasting
Traders with an economic background usually attach great importance to this type of market analysis. They carefully study interest rate expectations, construction and unemployment rates, GDP growth dynamics, weather changes, and so on. But if we take into account that about 98% -99% of all transactions made on the financial markets are speculative, then often the release of significant news not only does not confirm the expected growth of the currency but sometimes moves the price in the opposite direction. And among successful traders, there are many who do not read the news feed and do not study the economic calendar.
So is there any point in a thorough fundamental analysis? For intraday trading always news on commodity and minor currencies remains relevant. The market plays especially well on unexpected data.
However, when predicting the expected movement of the main currency pair, it is best to focus on a longer-term analysis. It fairly accurately identifies the main market trends and emerging economic problems. However, for small traders, such analysis is not very relevant. They simply do not have enough physical deposits for strategic trading on long time periods. Still, it can help determine the direction of a global trend. And this, in turn, will increase the chance of a successful medium-term entry into the market.
Technical analysis capabilities
Most analysts use technical analysis when forecasting the market. This is partly because they don’t try to guess the beginning of a price movement, but rather focus on the end result of that movement. To do this, they use a variety of mathematical tools. I won’t list them again. I will only say that there are three “axioms” in technical analysis:
1) The market takes everything into account.
Elements of synthesis in technical analysis allow you to determine the prevailing direction in the movement of currencies. It is believed that any serious reasons that may affect the market will necessarily be reflected in the price. I will add that the time when the strongest spikes in the dynamics of this movement will occur can be safely tied to the time of the release of important economic data.
2) Prices are driven by trends.
This postulate allows you to use price movement patterns to identify pullback points and strong resistance levels. While the trend continues, the technical analyst will look for opportunities to strengthen the trend positions. Wave analysis helps a lot here.
3) History repeats itself.
A few words about the human factor. Expectations, disappointments, panic, and market euphoria are factors that significantly correct technical and mathematical calculations. That is why we say that the market does not repeat itself.
But the human essence is unchangeable. And if you imagine a multimillion-dollar mass of excited investors behind dry figures, then you can quite successfully predict the price movement multiplied by emotions. The cyclical nature of the long-term market is largely related to human psychology. And Charles Dow (the father of the Dow Jones index), speaking of stock trading, argued: “The future is just a repetition of the past.”
If you look at all three postulates in general, it becomes obvious that they are relevant for medium – and long-term trading, much less effective for intraday trading, and absolutely useless for pipping.
Unfortunately, most of the training courses at dealing centers teach exactly the latter type of trading. Partly because they earn money from the market spread and are therefore interested in a large number of intraday trades. This is partly due to the too-small deposit of a novice trader, which does not allow him to earn serious money on transactions, which encourages him to maximize risk in trading.
And after such a trade, usually, instead of realizing their mistakes and moving to medium-term trading, there is a stream of emotional accusations towards the forex market and the appearance of such definitions as “scam”, “roulette” and “99% losers”.
The foreign exchange market has a number of patterns. It regularly shows similar situations, for which there are a number of standard solutions. Algorithms for price behavior when a certain market condition occurs are called forex strategies.
You can’t list all the strategies. But some of them are successfully used by a large number of traders. Among the best–known are strategies based on moving averages, strategies based on patterns and graphical models, Japanese candlesticks, Fibonacci levels, martingale method, channel strategy, carry trade, swing strategies. Each of them has several more varieties.
Of course, none of them can be universal and only serves as the basis for creating your own trading system (CU). It is equally obvious that the graph The vehicle doesn’t exist at all. Superprofit trending systems suddenly start to ungodly merge in the flat, and reliable flat ones TS — send false signals at the beginning of a trend. This is why I don’t trust automated trading systems to trade. I also don’t understand people who pay a lot of money for profitable Expert Advisors. Each trading system is designed for a specific person with their habits, temperament, and way of thinking and requires fitting it to the trader in order to increase the efficiency of trading. In my opinion, every trader should have “sharpened” several trading systems for different market situations and time periods.
During the year, you can find a lot of unambiguous signals for buying or selling a currency. But these signals are recorded by us de facto without the help of trading instruments. With the help of a well-established vehicle, we can not only increase the number of these signals but also prepare for the upcoming market movement: tactically, psychologically, and financially.